Sheets vs. Burnett: Stark Says It Best

The other day I mentioned that Sheets and Garland may not be worse than Burnett and Lowe. Today, Jayson Stark helps me make my case in the Sheets vs. Burnett department:

STRIKE TWO -- PICK THE FREE AGENT DEPT.: It never ceases to amaze me every year how perception becomes reality. So let's compare two free-agent starters. See if you can identify them:

Pitcher A worked 198 1/3 innings this year, had a 3.09 ERA, made the All-Star team and recorded his career high in wins.
Pitcher B threw 221 1/3 innings, had a 4.07 ERA, didn't make the All-Star team but also reached a career high in wins.
Pitcher A is a 30-year-old right-hander, and has a career record of 86-83, with a 3.72 ERA a 1.22 WHIP, in 221 starts.
Pitcher B is a 31-year-old right-hander, and has a
career record of 87-76, with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, in 211
starts.

One of these pitchers is A.J. Burnett, currently believed to be looking for a contract in the range of five years, $80 million. The other is Ben
Sheets, currently bouncing around the second or third tier of free-agent
starters, because he missed three starts at the end of the year with an elbow injury that's not regarded as serious. Can you guess which is
which?

OK, time's up. Pitcher A is Sheets. Pitcher B is Burnett. And it's amazing how similar their seasons and careers look, except for one thing: One (Burnett) finished the season healthy, and on a roll. The other (Sheets) actually started the All-Star Game, but finished the season on the shelf after aggravating a flexor-muscle strain because he didn't want to ask out of the rotation with the Brewers in a playoff race. So one guy is the hottest free-agent starter out there who isn't named CC Sabathia. And the other is regarded, in some circles, as "a risk." But is there any level of certainty that one will be more productive next season than the other? You'd think so. And you'll really think so after you see their final contract numbers in a few weeks. But how sure are you, really? And how'd you like to be a general manager trying to explain the answer to that question
to his owner?

One difference that Stark fails to point out is that Burnett put up his '08 numbers in the AL East and Sheets was facing off against the NL Central. The markets will decide how much that is worth...

Rehabbing the Rotation, Post Moose

Much to my disappointment Mike Mussina has retired. He clearly has decent years left in him, but if I had $100 million in my bank account, I'd sit back and enjoy a simpler life with rifles, DIRECTV and my sons, too. Then again...no, I wouldn't. 300 wins and trip to Cooperstown would have certainly brought me back if I were him. The effect of Moose's retirement on the Yankees, however, is probably minimal (especially since I was one of the few who thought he would come back). Any rumors of Pettitte going back to Houston will be squashed and we'll be forced to add another pitcher to our rotation at a far greater cost than what we would have had to pay Mike Mussina. With that in mind here's some more rotation fodder:

CC*
WANG

PETTITTE

BURNETT or LOWE**

JOBA

*With each passing day, I become more and more nervous that CC will decide that $120 million, living in Cali and getting 100 ABs a year will outweigh $150 million and all the pressures of New York. I hope I'm just being neurotic.

**In October, most people thought highly of D-Lowe because he was "AL East tested" and would come cheaper and for less years than AJ Burnett. That doesn't seem to be true any longer, which has blurred the picture for me a little bit when deciding which of them I'd prefer the Yankees make a move on. Part of me feels that offering 2yr deals to Ben Sheets and John Garland with all sorts of funky options and incentives (vested 3rd and 4th years based on performance and player opt-out clauses after 1 year), might make a whole lot more sense - while also being totally unrealistic as any decent starter will probably end up signing at least a 3yr deal (but that's the beauty of blogging). In theory though, Sheets could serve as the high-upside-injury-risk while Garland would be on hand to mop up the starts that Pettitte, Sheets and Joba will inevitably miss.

Sorting Through the Free Agent Pitchers

With reports surfacing that Ryan Dempster has signed a deal to return to the Cubs for 4yrs and $52 million, the market has finally been set for starting pitchers this offseason. It has been a quiet first week of free agency but hopefully this will set off some more interesting deals and some Yankee acquisitions. With this deal in the books, let's take another look at where the Yankees stand in the starting pitchers free agent market.

CC Sabathia: It's just a matter of time before he caves. How hard do you really have to twist someone's arm when there is $140 million on the table?

AJ Burnett: George King of the NY Post is reporting that the Yankees are putting together an offer for perhaps 5yrs and $80 million. Burnett, supposedly, has an offer on the table from the Blue Jays for 4yrs and $54 million. I say let him take it. 5yrs and $80 million for a guy with his injury history (he has only made more than 25 starts twice in the last 6 seasons) is ludicrous.

Derek Lowe: If Ryan Dempster can get a four year deal then Lowe can get three. If he takes the largest offer, he'll return to the AL East, but I think he should take $1-2 million/year less to pitch in the NL West for the Dodgers or Giants where he might be able to continue his success.

The Yanks have been lukewarm, and understandably so, when it comes to the other free agent arms out there (Ben Sheets, Brad Penny, Oliver Perez, Jon Garland, etc...) so the only other options are Pettitte and Mussina. Given his '08 performance, my guess is that if Mussina decides to return we'll give him $12-15 million and while Pettitte made $16 million in '08 he should expect a minor pay cut in '09. Personally, I think Mussina is going to come back otherwise he would have announced his retirement long ago, but we'll know soon enough. So if you were the Yankees would you rather roll the dice on getting Pettitte back to form on a one year deal, take an $80 million chance on AJ Burnett suddenly becoming durable or bringing back Derek Lowe to the AL East on a $40 million whim?

If it were my money, I would plan on going with CC, Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Joba in '09 and seeing if there's an arm or two left on the market in late January who can fill in when needed.

If Mussina proves me wrong, I'll address secondary options when the time comes. For now, let's hope we here from CC ASAP.

*******************************

Is Dustin Pedroia the worst MVP ever?

Offseason Acquisition: Nick Swisher

If anyone would have told me that on the first morning of this offseason's free agency period, the Yankees would have just acquired their 2009 first baseman I would have thought that it was most definitely Mark Texeira. Well, now that the 2009 offseason is officially under way we do have a new first baseman, but it is not mark Texeira, it's Nick Swisher.

What to expect in '09 and beyond: I've always liked Nick Swisher, maybe it was reading about him in Moneyball, maybe it was having him on a fantasy team or two before he went to the White Sox, but I always thought he was a good player and I think that's what we, as Yankee fans have to remember, he is not a great player . In essence, I think Nick Swisher is Jason Giambi-lite. Swisher has some pop but won't win any home run derbies, he will have a low batting average that Giambi regressed to but he'll get on base, he's a little lighter on his feet but he has only ever played 200 games at first base in his major league career and he has personality but he's clearly not the presence that Giambi is. So when Swisher goes out and hits 25-30 homers with a .250 avg and and .370 obp with 90 rbi and a few mishaps in the field, just realize that this is what we traded for: a good player, not a great one. Save the expectations for CC.

Yanks Offseason Priority #3: Settle the Staff

In a way this is really like Priority 2a, because Joba's presence in the rotation or bullpen will significantly strength that aspect of our staff for '09 and beyond. For this post, however, I am going to assume that Joba will be in the Yankees rotation in April '09. If we here at NYSportsFan.org learn of something to the contrary you'll be sure to see our thoughts on it immediately.

With Joba in one rotation slot and a healthy Wang in another, the Yanks still have to figure out who they are going to get 60% of their starts from.

I believe that we need to create a competition for our 5th slot between Hughes, Kennedy and some crappy (or wily if they pan out) left handed veterans on one year contracts, such as Mark Hendrickson, Glendon Rusch, etc... who could be decent lefty long men which we'll need if Joba and Hughes or Kennedy are in the mix. The hope here is that Hughes steps up and shakes off the pesky injury bug but, as we all know now, we can't hand our supposed young guns anything. Make them earn it against some guys who have had to fight to remain in the bigs.

I am also confident that either Pettitte or Mussina will return, possibly both. Penciling one of them in for 180-200 IP should be a relatively safe assumption. If you were Moose wouldn't you come back for '09 with an eye on '10 and 300 wins???? I know he'll be 40, but given the year he just had he has to feel like he can get there (he's at 270 now). I doubt Moose will replicate '08 in '09 and Pettitte clearly will never be the Andy Pettitte we remember from his first tour as a Yankee, but they can go out there every fifth day and keep us in it.

Do the math and we have one spot left and unfortunately that spot is at the top, where we haven't had an anchor for years. Sabathia is clearly the cream of the free agent/available crop but will his rumored love for Cali and hitting draw him to the NL West and away from the Bronx? Should the Yankees shell out Johan-style money to a guy who has overloaded his arm with innings the last two years only to struggle in the post season? I'm split, but if I were CC I'd say screw hitting and spend my offseasons in Cali, while opting for the stage and money the Yanks would offer. I'm no marketing guru, but given CC's personality and stature he would have to pull in a significantly greater amount of dollars as Yankee as opposed to a Giant for instance. Given that money has and always will talk, I'll flip a coin and say he ends up with us...

However if Sabathia doesn't pan out there are secondary options: Peavy (as John O. outlined below), AJ Burnett (paging Dr. Andrews), Ben Sheets (ditto), Derek Lowe (had ERAs of 4.47 and 5.42 his last two years in the AL), Oliver Perez (enough said) and John Garland (OK I should have stopped long before that). More than anything else these options lead me to further conclude that the Yankees will hand a blank check to CC because these options are pretty much crap. Peavy is great, but losing Cano would kind of suck. I'm just not ready to give up on him...so our '09 rotation could look something like this:

1. CC Sabathia
2. Wang
3. Joba
4. Pettitte or Mussina
5. Hughes/Kennedy/Oh shit we've got to score some runs today

Look for a shorter post tomorrow on addressing a Joba-less bullpen in '09.

Yanks Offseason Priorities #2: End the Joba Saga

With Priority #1 solidifying our offense and strengthening our defense it is only fitting that Priority #2 addresses our pitching staff.

Last offseason, I advocated on this blog for Joba to remain in the bullpen for '08 and I'm not going to preach the same thing here for the next six months, but I do feel that the Yankees need to commit now to one role for Joba in '09 whether it be as a starter or reliever so we can build our pitching staff accordingly. And while the Yanks had the best of intentions with Joba's arm in '08, they cannot play the same games with Joba's arm in '09. The Yankees need to consult with every physician, pitching coach, shoulder guru and witch doctor to determine whether Joba's arm is better suited in the long term for the bullpen or in the rotation and roll with it. End the back and forth of starter today, reliever tomorrow and assign Joba a long term role that he and the team can build on. And there's no need to rely on the unsolicited advice of hip hip Jorge...

Yanks Offseason Priorities: #1 Get Tex

John O. laid out a formidable plan for the Yankees offseason and over the course of the next few days I'm going reveal what I think the Yankees priorities should be. Last offseason we committed to a youth movement, we can't let the Bo-Sox and Rays change our plans just because they're planing in the ALCS while A-Rod is hiding at Dos Caminos with Madonna. Back to baseball...

Offseason Priority #1: Sign Mark Teixeira. Cashman hasn't said much since agreeing to return to the Yankees as GM, but he did say that he wants a first baseman to play first base. Simple, no? Not too easy, however, when you are laden with a roster filled with DH-types making it easy to try and hide Posada, Damon, Matsui or Nady at first. But, as Cash hinted, the Yankees will not plan on doing this and I couldn't agree more. We need to build a cohesive defensive unit to support our pitching and you can't do that with misfits at first base. We all know Tex can mash, but he is also a Gold Glover so unlike Giambi we know that even as he deteriorates offensively over the course of his contract we will always have his defense to lean on. I think there will be more competition for Tex than for CC, so we're going to have to shell out some serious dough but that's one thing Cash (pun intended) has.

A-Rod and Tex at the corners of our infield and the heart of our lineup for the foreseeable future? Sign me up. Let's just hope they don't start bitch slapping each other.